[카테고리:] DownUnder

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/where-your-neighbours-send-their-kids-to-school-20250206-p5la5i.html

If Australians made one thing clear at the most recent federal election in 2022, it was that they were fed up with the major parties. The conservative Liberal Party, which had been in power for nine years in coalition with the smaller National party, suffered the worst result in its history. But because the Liberals lost eight seats to Greens and green-minded independent candidates (known as “Teals”), the left-leaning Labor Party, the main opposition, edged into power only narrowly. Less than a third of voters backed Labor.

Australians are just as glum about their next election, which is expected by May 2025 and could be sooner. It will pit the Labor prime minister, Anthony Albanese, against Peter Dutton, from the right wing of the Liberal Party. Conservatives regard “Albo” as weak; progressives see Mr Dutton as nasty. Both are unpopular with voters. Analysts reckon that Australians will end up with a minority government, possibly led by Labor with the support of Greens, Teals and independents.

Part of the problem is that Labor’s record is thin. In 2022 it ended years of paralysis over Australia’s climate policy, passing a law that imposed legally binding targets to reduce emissions. In foreign policy, it has managed to patch up Australia’s trading relationship with China, while countering China’s growing influence in the Pacific. Yet much of its term was consumed by a botched campaign for a “Voice to Parliament”, an advisory body to represent the views of indigenous communities. Australians voted against the idea at a referendum in 2023. What lingered was a feeling that the government was out of touch on what voters cared most about: the economy.

That is what will dominate the coming election. Inflation has proved hard to tame, and high interest rates have hurt indebted homeowners. Australians are also angry about a worsening housing crisis. 

The Liberals ought to be able to capitalise on those frustrations. But the party has alienated many of its traditional voters by veering hard to the right on issues such as climate change. It lost almost all its urban seats in 2022 and may struggle to form a government without winning back support from educated urbanites, especially women.

Memories of the last hung parliament, in 2010-13, still cause pain. Julia Gillard, Labor’s then prime minister, was pressed by the Greens to introduce a carbon price. The policy worked, but the Liberals labelled it “a great big tax on everything” and Labor was trounced at the next election. No one likes a hung parliament, but a fragmented, frustrated electorate means there may be no escaping it.